前言

背景與目的：

本文彙整近期圍繞 Kalshi 的聯邦與州級行動，Kalshi 是一個提供以事件為基礎合約的平台。本文說明商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）為何動用緊急權限要求 Kalshi 繼續交易、概述紐約司法長官 Letitia James 對該交易所提起的訴訟，並將這些發展置於全國範圍內關於事件合約應如何被監管的更廣泛法律衝突中。目的是提供清晰、中立的敘述，讓讀者能理解聯邦對跨州衍生商品市場的監管與各州試圖適用博弈或賭博法之間的監管衝突。

懶人包

重點摘要： CFTC 使用其緊急權限命令 Kalshi 在 Kalshi 報告市場緊急情況後繼續營運。 紐約對 Kalshi 提起訴訟，尋求在全國範圍內的禁制令並要求巨額賠償，同時 CFTC 堅稱這些事件合約為跨州金融工具，不受州博弈法規範。多個州已面臨或加入訴訟，該爭議凸顯出關於預測市場與事件市場監管上聯邦與州之間的緊張關係。

主體內容

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) invoked its emergency authority to require KalshiEX, the exchange operated by Kalshi, to continue functioning after the company notified the agency of a market emergency. The CFTC's order directs Kalshi to maintain trading operations consistent with the Commodity Exchange Act's standards for designated contract markets. This action followed Kalshi's own emergency notification, which the exchange filed after New York Attorney General Letitia James initiated a state-court lawsuit on July 31.

The New York suit seeks a restraining order that would bar Kalshi from offering event contracts anywhere in the United States, and it pursues damages in excess of $36 billion. In the complaint, the state treats Kalshi's platform as an unlicensed gambling enterprise, asserting multiple counts under state law and seeking treble disgorgement of profits plus statutory penalties for certain alleged wagers. The Attorney General's petition cites Kalshi's disclosed metrics—an estimated valuation and high annualized trading volumes—to support claims about the scale and impact of the alleged unlawful activity.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly criticized New York's filing, characterizing the state's attempt as an effort to halt an emerging national market before courts have resolved the underlying legal questions. Selig framed the dispute as one over fundamentals: the CFTC views exchanges that match orders across state lines and clear trades centrally as interstate financial venues governed by federal law, not as gambling platforms subject to a mosaic of state gaming statutes. He argued that Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated by disparate state gaming rules.

The broader conflict extends beyond New York. The CFTC reports it has sued nine states that have sought to restrict or ban event contracts, and the agency has filed amicus briefs in appellate courts and state high courts addressing related legal issues. Over the course of the year, state actions and resulting litigation have proliferated—the CFTC's list includes Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Minnesota and others—prompting the agency to defend its jurisdiction and regulatory framework in court.

The litigation record is mixed. Kalshi itself has faced setbacks in state courts. A judge in the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi a preliminary injunction against enforcement by New York's gaming regulator in early July and also refused to extend protection during an appeal later that month. Other states have achieved temporary restrictions on portions of Kalshi's business—Michigan curtailed sports-related markets in June, and Washington secured a preliminary injunction in July. Kalshi has seen favorable rulings in some federal appellate venues, such as decisions in the Third Circuit involving New Jersey and in Minnesota, illustrating how outcomes vary by jurisdiction and legal posture.

At the center of the dispute is a set of legal and policy questions with implications for financial innovation, consumer protection, and the scope of federal authority. Regulators and courts must decide whether event contracts—often described as prediction or contingent-outcome markets—are properly classified as derivatives subject to the Commodity Exchange Act, or whether they fall within states' traditional authority to police gambling and wagering. The CFTC's stance relies on the interstate character of these markets, where orders are matched across state lines and clearing occurs centrally, aligning them with other exchange-traded derivatives the federal government regulates.

State attorneys general and other proponents of state supervision counter that certain event-based contracts resemble wagers and thus should be regulated, restricted, or prohibited under state gaming laws. They emphasize consumer protection concerns and potential social harms associated with wagers on societal or political events. These competing perspectives reflect deeper tensions about how to balance fostering financial-market innovation against protecting citizens and preserving states' police powers.

The legal fight has also drawn political attention. High-profile statements from national figures and divergent rulings across jurisdictions underscore the challenge courts will face in reconciling federal statutory schemes with state regulatory objectives. The CFTC's emergency order to keep Kalshi operating is a short-term measure intended to prevent abrupt market disruption; it does not resolve the substantive questions that will likely be decided in forthcoming litigation and appeals.

For market participants, the situation creates uncertainty. Exchanges, liquidity providers, and traders must weigh the operational and legal risks of participating in event-contract markets while lawsuits proceed. For regulators and policymakers, the dispute may prompt clearer statutory or regulatory guidance—either affirming federal primacy over certain derivatives or expressly reserving state authority over specific categories of wagering-like instruments.

Ultimately, the resolution of these cases will shape the regulatory landscape for event and prediction markets in the United States. Whether through court rulings, legislative action, or regulatory clarification, stakeholders will watch closely for signals about the boundaries between federal derivatives regulation and state gaming law. Until then, emergency measures like the CFTC's order serve to maintain market continuity while the legal process unfolds.

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